My predictions - some straight from market insights, some straight from me yapping. So bear with me if you can.

🇻🇳 Vietnam Outlook

Vietnam might finally see a sizable exit through M&A in 2026.

Given the number of buyers and accelerators I've seen at ThinkApps & Gamesforum, this is just a matter of timing (and $$). It might not be a Peak Game moment in Turkey (yet), but sizable enough to fuel innovation from the Torso/Tail of the market.

The market might contract in downloads.

And honestly... that might be a good thing.

With ever so slightly thinner margins and faster rate of consolidation (big publishers win most), volume is not the play anymore. Next year will be a year where Vietnam founders have to be more deliberate, focus on profitability, restructure.

"Lùi một bước để tiến ba bước"

Capital will be more crucial than ever

Either it’s traditional VC funding or UA financing, studios who know how to leverage capital and transition survive, those who rely on the old way of 30 day cashflow turn into the distant background.

What else? I foresee a strategic collab from Vietnam and a studio in the West. The growth of Vietnam in Gaming is too big to ignore right now, so something something like IP collaboration?

I’m calling it: 2026 is the year a top Western studio signs a VN partner to expand an existing IP, leveraging its speed and cost structure - and it would perform better than anyone expects.

🌍 General Mobile Market

Hyper-casual as a business model for Torso, Tail new studios is dead.

You might be thinking: Tracy - are you 3 years late? Voodoo called it 3 years ago!

But this time, it's real.

AppMagic reported Google Play revenue down 0.12% YoY - a very small decline, but a contrast to the growth in Android users (~8%) means Android ARPDAU is going down.

A platform flooded with low quality, fake apps is not a healthy platform. And Google have finally caught on to this. From early 2024 till mid 2025, the number of apps on Playstore has been slashed by 47%. And I believe Google will continue to raise the bar on Playstore.

Okay, back from the long rant 😅. GooglePlay crackdown, and rising in CPI makes it impossible to run a healthy old fashioned D0, D1 ROAS campaigns nowaday. So if you start a business today running the old hypercasual model, you’re down under before you even start.

The New Moat: Personalization, pLTV

With most of the market shifting into Hybrid-Casual and Puzzle - where CPIs are even more brutal and every other game looks “inspired” by the next.

the real separator in 2026 is execution.

The era of plug-and-play D0/D7 ROAS is over. Studios that survive will be the ones who master predictive LTV - pingbacks tied to D90+ ROAS and beyond.

This also means segmentation and personalization at scale become non-negotiable: UA, onboarding, and monetization loops must speak to each other, not operate in silos.

And yes, AI/ML will sit at the center of all of this (guess I'm a believer now ey 😏), whether modeling LTV, powering co-pilot experimentation, or automating real-time personalization across the funnel.

Web stores are growing, but the big boys won't wait and see

Appstore revenue is one of the highest margin businesses inside Apple, and an essential part of the "Apple ecosystem". (Also fuels the data to optimize Apple Search campaign). And I guess they don't like losing or threats, (or I might be delulu as usual 🤣🤣), but I can definitely see new revenue share negotiation in 2026.

🧩 AdTech

Woo, it will be a fun year!

A new mediation player breaks out

Jim Payne and Dan Sack, the minds behind MoPub and MAX are back in business! And honestly, the industry couldn’t have asked for better timing. With mediation increasingly dominated by “you know who,” this is in my Bingo card for 2026!

Traditional brand-heavy adtech tries mobile - and fails

So my friends at Magnite just launched their brand new In-app SDK and this is a very clear signal of Branding investing in mobile - which is what we love, right?

But the thing is: unless these guys know how to A: automate bundles approval and not treat mobile in-app like News or CTV inventory, B: find a green field where they can compete as their premium video CPM will come up short compared to sticky, accidental click inducing videos/playables from performance campaigns.

Demand path optimization is the new AdMon levers

It’s 2026 and most of the tactical tricks are not working anymore.

Studios need to finally focus on direct paths to demand and control. The murky reseller/intermediaries need to finally make clear what they bring to the supply chain, or else. (Can you believe it we're still in a space where middle men can take 50% cut in the auction?!)

CTV has already peaked

This is definitely a 🌶️ take. But, CTV is a highly concentrated, low margin business for AdTech.

With Netflix acquiring Warner Bros, and the abomination failure of Amazon Prime over the past few years over original content, the streaming war is already settled.

Don't get me wrong, Ad spend still be growing in CTV, but AdTech companies are now fighting over the ever thinner margin. And for the smaller fragmented part of the market that are pivoting to UGC, CTV business has become less sexy than ever.

It’s been a really great run though.

Chatbots are the new AdNetworks

This is probably the most anticipated thing in the AdTech world.

GenAi has seen tremendous growth in the past 3 years. And Ad as a business model is inevitable. The question is, who will make the first move.

My guess? For ChatGPT and Gemini, it is a game of chicken right now as they both have a lot to loose if Ads go wrong. Someone like Meta or Grok might just pull the trigger.